September 30 price analysis: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BNB, DOT, LINK, BSV, CRO, ADAOktober 5, 2020
Bitcoin and some altcoins are still struggling with resistance at the higher levels, this suggests that the upward trend may soon resume.
According to CryptoQuant data, the total amount of Bitcoin (BTC) held in stock on the exchanges fell from 2.8 million BTC in October 2019 to 2.4 million.
Although Bitcoin is still well below its historical highs, if it manages to close Q3 2020 above USD 10,590, that would be the second best close in any quarter.
All these factors suggest that the crypt currency markets are moving into the hands of stronger investors who do not care about daily price fluctuations.
It is said that institutional investors have big pockets and are in favour of holding long term positions. Bybit data shows that Grayscale Investments currently holds 449,900 Bitcoin, that’s more than 2% of the maximum possible supply of Bitcoin.
If institutional investors increase their allocations to crypto-currencies, demand could eventually exceed supply and that could drive the price of Bitcoin.
Let’s study the graphs to analyze the path with the least resistance for the 10 main cryptom currencies.
Bitcoin has been walking around the 20 day exponential moving average (USD 10,732) for the past few days.
Bearers were unable to take advantage of the weakness and sink the price below USD 10,500 support. This shows some indecision between the upside and downside about the next directional move.
The 20-day flat EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. It is difficult to predict the direction of the next break in this range.
However, sometimes the RSI movement can give us some clues. If the RSI rises above the symmetrical triangle and the 55 level, it will increase the possibility of the bullish side attempting a breakout from the USD 11.178.
If successful, the BTC/USD can rise to USD 12,000 and then USD 12,460. Conversely, si bearishers sink the price below USD 10,500 and the uptrend line is likely to fall to USD 9,835.
Bearers are trying to stop the recovery movement in the 20-day EMA (USD 361). If the price falls and breaks below USD 337, Ether (ETH) could fall to USD 308,392.
When the price does not rise above the 20 day EMA in a downward movement, suggests that sentiment is negative and the bearers are selling during the runs.
Both moving averages are declining marginally and the fact that the RSI is not rising above the 50 level suggests that the bearishers have the upper hand. A break below the critical support of USD 308,392 could result in a fall to USD 240.
This negative view will be invalidated if the ETH/USD pair rises and breaks the 20 day EMA. Such a move could result in a rally to the USD 395.
The decline from the intraday low of USD 0.219712 on 24 September hit a 20-day EMA hurdle (USD 0.243). The failure of the bulls to push XRP above the 20-day EMA suggests that the bears may be trading short at the resistance.
Both moving averages are falling marginally and the RSI is just below the 50. level suggesting that the bearishers have a small advantage.
If the bears can push the XRP/USD below the support zone between USD 0.2295 and USD 0.219712, the downtrend can be resumed with the next stop set at USD 0.19.
if the pair rises and breaks above the 20 day EMA, it will be the first sign that selling pressure is reducing. The break of USD 0.26 will suggest a possible change in trend.
If the bearishers drop the price below USD 223, there will be a drop to USD 210 and then to USD 200 on the jokers. A break below the critical support of USD 200 will be a big negative signal, as it could indicate the beginning of a possible downward trend.
This negative view will be void if the BCH/USD pair rises and breaks the downward trend line and the upper resistance at USD 242. Above this level the upward movement can reach USD 280.
The decline in Binance Coin (BNB) reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at USD 29,0886 on September 29th where it faces resistance. However, if the high does not lose much ground, the bulls will make another attempt to take the price above USD 29,0886.
If successful, the BCH/USD could reach the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of USD 30.9884 and above that it could reach USD 33.4084. Rising moving averages and RSI in the positive zone suggest that the bulls are in control.
Bearers will try to sink the price, but it is likely that the bulls will buy aggressively during the next fall to the 20 day EMA as the trend is upwards. Failure to hold the price above the 20 day EMA will be the first sign of weakness.
The fact that buyers cannot get the price above the 20-day EMA (USD 4.55) indicates weakness.
If it has its way, the DOT/USD could lose ground and fall to USD 2,782 and below it to USD 2. The 20 day EMA is gradually falling and the failure of the RSI to stay above the 50 level suggests that the bearish move is in the ascendancy.
However, if the pair rebounds back above USD 4 or rises from current levels, bullishers will attempt to push the price above the 20 day EMA. If they can do so, the pair may rise to USD 4,921 and subsequently USD 5,5899.
The failure of the bulls to hold the price above the 20 day EMA (USD 10.60) could have caused short term traders to decide to withdraw their gains. Bearishers will now attempt to take advantage of this weakness and sink Chainlink (LINK) below immediate support at USD 9.3771.
If successful, the LINK/USD can fall to USD 6.90. The 20-day EMA has begun to fall and the RSI has been below the 50 level for a few days now, suggesting that the bearish move has the upper hand.
However, if the pair rebounds off the USD 9.3771 support, a few days of range-bound action may occur. A break above USD 11.1990 will be the first sign that selling pressure has decreased.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) fell from the downward trend line on September 28, but the upside did not allow the price to fall below the 20 day EMA (USD 166). Buyers today pushed the price above the downward trend line and are attempting to take it above the 50 day SMA (USD 180).
Instead, if the pair falls from the 50 day simple moving average (SMA), it will suggest that the bearish move is being aggressively defended by the sellers. Sellers will attempt to push the pair below the support zone between USD 146.20 and USD 135.00.
Crypto.com Coin (CRO) has been trading below the moving averages for the last few days, but the bearishers have not managed to sink the price below the immediate support at USD 0.144743.
However, if the CRO/USD pair does not break above the moving averages in the next few days, it could result in a new sales round that could challenge the USD 0.144743 support.
A break and a close (UTC time) below this level will complete the downward triangle pattern, which targets USD 0.10607.
This bearish configuration will be invalidated if the bulls push the price above the downward trend line of the triangle. Above this level a move is possible first to USD 0.183416 and then to USD 0.191101.
The strong recovery movement in Cardano (ADA) could not break the downward trend line on September 28, but the good news is that the bulls are not allowing the price to fall below the 20 day EMA (USD 0.0955).
The 20-day EMA is tilting upwards and the RSI has remained above the 50 level, suggesting that the advantage is in favour of the bulls.
If the ADA/USD bounces off the 20-day EMA, bullishers will again attempt to push the price above the downward trend line. If they have their way, the pair could go up to USD 0.1280.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bears sink below the 20 day EMA, a drop to the USD 0.0855982 and then to the USD 0.0755701 is possible.